Pep Talk: Facetime Video Messages

Welcome to 2017, it’s good to be a product guy, cool tech abounds: autonomous cars; AI layered onto everything from natural language processing to credit scores; wearables track our health; phones are essentially minicomputers to keep us constantly connected (saving us from real human interaction - I’m half kidding).  But honestly we can do better.  As a child I imagined this time to be way more advanced, think Jetsons.  Am I being unreal?  What do you think? let me know in the comments.  As I come off of a short break and move this blog to a quarterly, I’ll add in Productpep Talks: quick hits which cover one specific product and focus focus focus on how it can be better.     

Quick rant, video calling:  When it comes to video calls, we’re way behind.  They existed even before Skype (2003) and over the last 10+ years, not much has changed.  Bandwidth, connectivity, video quality, still frustrate the majority of calls and most just revert back to the voice call.  Over the past year, my team had members in Seattle, Denver and SF we tested Google Hangouts, Skype, Skype for Business (disaster), Join.me and none were as reliable as a voice call and most caused frustration: drops, delayed meetings due to setup, and frustrating lags.  This is one of the most over-solved problems of our time, so why can’t these companies just get it right?  OK, rant over.  While at iceberg pace, this tech will improve and video calling will soon be usable, even preferred, I guess we just have to be patient, meh.

For one-on-one personal video calls, I’ve been using Facetime; quick catch-ups with friends and family - mostly while driving in the car - it works well.  Of course, to play everyone must have newish iPhones but the video and voice quality is fantastic, all is good.  That is until someone is unavailable, then you’re left with this:  

“Call Back,” “Cancel,” “Leave a Message” (iMessage)... that’s all, Come On!  This is a video call, we’re supposed to be futurists leaving the past behind… and BTW, I’m in the car and should not be texting (sure I can use Siri to text, but that’s a separate flow).  So Facetime, this is your Productpep Talk (trademark, 2016 - not really).  

Facetime Video Messages.  

Facetime, you had me at hello.  You’ve been great.  Even Siri, my stylish female British operator, can place calls “Hey Siri, Facetime Tim Cook.”  “Placing a Facetime call to Tim Cook.”  The video is serviceable to good and audio speakerphone clarity is crisp.  My iPhone 7 Plus made calling friends and family fun again.  That is until they’re not available.  Why can’t we keep the fun rolling?  Leave a video voicemail?  Skype can do it (sort of).  Snapchat has made a $20 billion business out of this.  So why can’t we just have a tiny, 20 second, video voice message…. iVideo Message… Video iMessage… Videomail or whatever the Apple marketing genius bar wants to name it.      

Today...

• I can leave an iMessage for missed Facetime calls
• I can create a video and attach it to an iMessage (but in a separate flow)

Let’s combine the two and leave a video message, 20 sec limit.  I mean, Snapchat can do this, why can’t you?

Something like this:

Update to leave Facetime, Video Messages.

Recipients would find Facetime messages in Phone, Voicemail section, soon to be named something else.

Video Messages display in the same list as Voice Messages.  Option for voice only or full vid.

Okay, good talk Russ.  Let’s get back in there and bring us the Video iMessage we all want; and don’t leave me hanging.  

Uber, Everyone’s Private “Driver?”

CEO, Trav and celeb-investors like Chris Sacca are hot for driverless Uber; irrational exuberance or sooner than we think?

A Less Esoteric Uber Logo.

Uber has aggressively dropped in on the 3rd wave of the internet: On-demand everything.  And as the 2nd wave, Social, had Privacy hurdles, this generation must overcome Regulations.  

But suspending the regulations conversation for now, does it make business and product sense for Uber to launch into driverless?  Let’s just ease off our silver space suits for a moment and take a pragmatic look at what this could mean for Uber, considering: Unit Economics, Customer Experience and Safety. 

Uber owning/leasing a fleet of driverless cars is a drastically different company, from business model to customer experience. 

A driverless Uber company goes from a marketplace pairing drivers with passengers (and food, see UberEATS) to an owned, operated fleet of on-demand delivery service vehicles.

Let’s take a look under the hood and compare Uber with and without drivers, for a moment, forget our infatuation with robot cars shuttling us around, and drill into key business drivers for this uber shift.  

UNIT ECONOMICS

Beyond initial shock and awe, does a driverless Uber make good business sense?

Revenue

Let’s start with the obvious, no driver.  This frees up a seat, increased capacity; for popular five-seat cars, a 25% increase.  While this revenue bump is somewhat limited to UberPool, it’s a boost to this growing segment.  A good start.  

Driverless cars can’t quit and they don’t stop: bio-breaks, sleep, errands, anything; and aside from refueling and routine maintenance (required regardless) they’ll essentially be running and earning almost 24 hrs a day, three times the average 8 hr shift for drivers.  

Here’s the revenue determinants:

• 25% increased capacity for UberPool rides,

• Increased volume with 24/7 fleet service, and

• 20% driver cut going back to the house (Uber)

Cost

Can the revenue increase make up for the added CapEx and OpEx cost of owning and maintaining a fleet of cars?

Without revealing my source, let’s assume Uber goes with electric driverless cars.  And electric has lower maintenance and fuel cost, plus federal tax credit advantages over standard cars.   But unlike most other robot replacing employees comparisons; Uber doesn’t pay driver salaries and we all know they don’t cover benefits, eh hem, so the cost comparison just comes down to the 20% payout to the driver, which isn’t much.  

Can a slight increase in volume and capacity and recouping the 20% rider’s share make up for:

• CapEx for new Uber Driverless fleet

• Fuel/charging

• Maintenance and Repairs

Unit Economics Winner: Driverless

USER EXPERIENCE

Imagine it, your UberPool pulls up and there’s no one behind the wheel, another passenger is in the back seat, you get in and are whisked away to the next stop.  Is this going to improve your Uber experience?  In our “extraordinary is the new normal” society, the wow-factor has a three month shelf life.  Afterwards, driverless must either lower the cost or prove to be safer.  Then there’s this:  I actually like chatting with my driver; Uber drivers see a lot and usually make for interesting conversation.  Sure, sometimes I’m banging on email, oblivious to my rideshare; but call me old fashion I would miss the human interaction.  
 

Customer Service

There have been great stories of Uber drivers going above and beyond, like walking up three flights of stairs to help someone with her heavy luggage.  Then again, there’s the high profile negative press from malicious drivers.

Let’s focus on the service and Uber’s biggest complaint: Surge Pricing!  

With driverless, Uber takes full control of the supply.  Surge pricing to get drivers on the road, gone!  Long waits for drivers at odd hours, gone!  

Without the time lag to get drivers on the road, a fully deployed fleet of driverless cars will allow Uber to realize the purest form of predictive algorithms; placing cars where demand is expected.  A basic example is having cars swarm to downtown San Francisco just before rush hour.  

Wow-factor

Okay, Driverless wins this round.  But, soon after launch, we’ll be blasé about driverless cars as they become just another appliance.  Nevertheless, at least for a little while, it’ll be cool being shuttled around, sans driver.  

Customer Experience Winner: Driverless

SAFETY

The Top 3 causes for driving accidents are: distracted driving, impaired driving (DUI), and speeding.  All caused by drivers.  Then again, driverless cars could usher in a new set of accidents: Outdated map, Dirty sensors, Faulty GPS.  Still I trust the machine to make less mistakes than humans.

Safety Winner: Driverless  

BOTTOM LINE

While Driverless offers a cool, wow-factor which could increase user adoption.  Uber already has a phenomenal business model.  Their marketplace is built on the fundamentals that car purchase, fuel, insurance, and maintenance, are paid for by the driver, all for a 20% share of payout.  This is an on-demand free cash machine.  There's risk in turning this on its head for the chance to run a 24hr fleet which doesn’t stop for food or bathroom breaks; and grow profits against huge CapEx and OpEx expenses.  So why change the winning formula?  

There must be something more.  

Uber sees the pothole up ahead: drivers as paid employees with benefits.  

And with it, overnight, Uber will wake from its unicorn dream as a boring old taxi company; not very sexy to investors.  This is why the Driverless option makes sense; not for the unit economics of today, but as a hedge against a taxi company nightmare of tomorrow.    

#RIPTwitter?

Can @Jack make Twitter more engaging or is it #RIPTwitter?

While the reports of Twitter’s death have been greatly exaggerated; this February, Twitter is getting no love.

CEO, Jack Dorsey, is being pressured by stock traders to grow monthly active users and keep them engaged longer.  

IMHO, Twitter’s recent Shareholder Letter was promising:

• $710 million in Q4, up 48% YoY
• $2.2 billion in 2015, up 58%
• advertisers up 90%
• revenue from advertising, data licensing, U.S., international all up!  

Twitter also added:

• native video
• launched Periscope live streaming video
• expanded direct messaging
• Google, Doubleclick ad bidding integration
• self-service for advertising
•  Moments for keeping up with trending stories as they happen    

This is all goodness; but I’m a glass half full, product guy; Wall Street, not so much.  What has the bankers/gamblers spooked?  two metrics:

1. Monthly Active Users, MAUs, in Q4: 320 million, up just 9%

2. User engagement, measured as percent daily logins: 38%

This is not a financial blog; short term stock price is not of concern to me, but it does present an interesting product design problem.  So let’s dig in!

How can Twitter increase users and keep them coming back, more often?  

Address users’ biggest complaints, I mean, not rocket science.  Home is where the heart is; let’s focus on how they can fix these issues with updates to Twitter Home Page. 

Complaint #1, “Twitter is too confusing.”

To the uninitiated, Twitter can be drinking from a firehose: too much information, all at once overwhelming, quickly streaming past.  

Give users more control of their feed, make it easier to find information.

The Home Feed should be more like Twitter Search, clean and well organized; it gives users control to find information, make refinements, even save searches.  Breaking Twitter users into Hunters and Gatherers, the Hunters have Twitter Search, the Gatherers have been neglected.  Updating the Home Feed algorithm to copy Facebook’s little known “Top Stories” or “Most Recent” News Feed options is a good start, but should be further developed; give users more control of their feed.  

View fullsize

Twitter Home Mobile updated.

As a Gatherer I want different ways to filter my feed, shape it based on my interests at any moment.  This would give Twitter a “remote control” so I could change “channels.”  So in addition to “Most Recent” feed I should be able to shape my Home Feed by:

• Most Popular - similar to Facebook’s “Top Stories” this re-orders my feed based on popularity algorithm within my personal Twittersphere 
• Most Relevant - of the Tweets in my feed, based on my interests, tweets I like, topics I tweet about, #hashtags I mention, places where I tweet...
• Photos - most recent and most popular images from all of Twitter, not just my feed; make it beautiful! 
• News - display most recent news related tweets; this could rival Google News.  The Hunters already have this in Twitter Search, let’s give it to the Gatherers as well.  
• Near Me - nearby tweets; to see what’s happening around me 
• Top Tweeters - show me the tweets from the most popular Twitter star accounts   

View fullsize

Twitter Home Feed with "clicker" for choosing channel, giving control to users. 

View fullsize

View fullsize

Complaint #2, “I can’t express myself with 140 characters.”

I’m a purest, I like the 140 character limit, but if going bigger will expand the audience and increase user engagement then, let’s do this!  But please, show some decorum, keep it civilized.  If this turns my feed into a messy list of diatribes? I’m out!

View fullsize

Twitter Home Feed ("clicker" set to Relevant) showing an Expandable Tweet

View fullsize

Expanded 10K tweet, with liberties

Keep the visible portion of tweets 140 characters, with an option to expand for more.  If 10,000 characters is the magic number, also used for Twitter Direct Messages, then let the 140 character tweet be the head with an option to extend to 10,000 as the tail.  Ten thousand character tweets, #10Ktweets, will give more room for expression; could result in deeper engagement; but may even be an affront to Twitter founder, Ev Williams, and his startup, Medium, a site for longer form posts; more Twitter drama?!      

Complaint #3, “I have no voice on Twitter.”   

Sure, Twitter has been a lightening rod for enacting large scale social change, see The Arab Spring, but it falls short for regular people trying to be heard over the “din” of tweets.  So if I want to ask Donald Trump: 

“@realDonaldTrump EXACTLY how do you plan to make Mexico pay for your wall?” 

If my question gains popularity it should make it’s way to his excellence, The Don.  Likes, sorry, ‘“loves” should be used to promote tweets (especially questions) to the @mentioned people, companies, organizations.  So if my tweet to @realDonaldTrump was well loved, voted up, it would eventually bubble up in his Twitter Feed.  This feature brings with it the promise that anyone could challenge public figures, raise awareness, exact change through use of crowd wisdom to democratize the public Twitter Feed.  

Sure, there are other issues to address like safety and privacy, but they’re less linked to user growth and engagement; this is a focused, quick-hit blog, so maybe some other time.  And, yes, there are other ways to grow users and keep them engaged, like live streaming video; but we’ve already covered that, twice, check back, we may cover these again soon.

BOTTOM LINE

With some well crafted product enhancements to the Home page, Twitter could be more engaging, less confusing, and more interactive.  With a solid Q4 finishing out a good year, Jack and the team should be able to grow users and keep them engaged; and start the #RIPTwitter hashtag trending downward.

---

24 FEB 2016

Update

Twitter agrees with me that it's time to redesign Twitter Home.  They have a job posting; are you up for it?  Or they could just use this blog and be done with it.  ; )